|
|
|
The Great Recession?
he person who caused the current world recession can be found not on Wall Street or the city of London, but instead could be you, and your next-door neighbor—the people who put so much of their savings and credit to buy a house.
Increasingly, conventional wisdom places the fundamental blame for the worldwide downturn on people's desire—particularly in places like the U.K., the U.S. and Spain—to own their own home. Acceptance of the long-term serfdom of renting, the logic increasingly goes, could help restore order and the rightful balance of nature.
Once considered sacrosanct by conservatives and social democrats alike, homeownership is increasingly seen as a form of economic derangement. The critics of the small owner include economists like Paul Krugman and Ed Glaeser, who identify the over-hot pursuit of homes as one critical cause for the recession. Others suggest it would be perhaps nobler to put money into something more consequential, like stocks.
[MORE]
For more in-depth
examination of these and other place-related issues, be sure to visit our new site: newgeography.com
Amid the change, a lot of the same
This fixation on hierarchy has been unexpected for an administration whose stock sold on the notion of being something other than the same old, same old. Yet as it turns out, the Obamanians seem to be as narrow, if not narrower, than their much-disdained predecessors.
Early on, President Barack Obama’s magical mystery tour gained power in places you would not expect it to — winning critical victories in overwhelmingly white, socially conservative Great Plains and Midwestern states. Yet today, he has built one of the narrowest administrations, both ideologically and regionally, in recent memory.
[MORE]
Forbes - June 22, 2009
Why The Left Is Questioning Its Hero
uch has been made by the national media and the markets about the emergence from our desiccated economic soil of what President Obama has called "green shoots." But although the economy may already be slowly regenerating (largely due to its natural resiliency), we need to question whether these fledglings will grow into healthy plants or a crop of crabgrass.
The political right has made many negative assessments of the president's approach, decrying the administration's huge jump in deficit spending and penchant for ever more expansive regulatory control of the economy. Polling data by both The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal shows some growing unease about both the expanding federal role in the economy and the growing mountain of debt.
But this conservative critique, which includes sometimes shrill accusations of nascent "socialism," isn't the most important counter to Obamanomics. Perhaps more on point – and politically risky for the administration – are criticisms coming from his supposed bedfellows further to the left.
[MORE]
Forbes - June 15, 2009
Europe: No Longer a
Role Model
For America
or decades many in the American political and policy establishment--including close supporters of President Obama--have looked enviously at the bureaucratic powerhouse of the European Union. In everything from climate change to civil liberties to land use regulation, Europe long has charmed those visionaries, particularly on the left, who wish to remake America in its image.
"There is much to be said for being a Denmark or Sweden, even a Great Britain, France or Italy," wrote political scientist Andrew Hacker in his 1971 book The End of the American Era .This refrain has been picked up again more recently by the likes of Washington Post reporter T.R. Reid and economist Jeremy Rifkin. Just last year, international relations scholar Parag Khanna shared his vision of a "shrunken" America lucky to eke out a meager existence between a "triumphant China" and a "retooled Europe."
But the tendency to borrow from the European toolbox may be somewhat questionable, particularly given that a growing number of Europeans are either uninterested--barely 40% bothered to vote in E.U. Parliament elections last week--or in open revolt against their own system of government. In the elections, for example, parties generally opposed to expanding E.U. power gained ground in countries as diverse as Hungary, Slovakia and the Netherlands. In Britain, the relatively small U.K. Independence Party, which even opposed membership in the U.N., out-polled the Labour Party and trailed only the Conservatives, who announced their own shift toward a more euro-skeptic point of view.
[MORE]
- Forbes - June 8 2009
Britain's Labour
Lessons
For Obama
ONDON - The thrashing of Britain's New Labour Party – which came in a weak third in local and European Parliament elections this week – may seem a minor event compared to Barack Obama's triumphal overseas tour. Yet in many ways the humiliation of New Labour should send some potential warning shots across the bow of the good ship Obama.
Labour's defeat, of course, stemmed in part from local conditions, notably a cascading Parliamentary expense scandal that appears most damaging to the party in power. Yet beyond those sordid details lies a more grave tale – of the possible decline of the phenomenon I describe as gentry liberalism.
Gentry liberalism – which reached its height in Britain earlier this decade and is currently peaking in the U.S. – melded traditional left-of-center constituencies, such as organized labor and ethnic minorities, with an expanding class of upper-class professionals from field like media, finance and technology.
[MORE]
-
Forbes - June 1, 2009
Is Your City Safe From The Tech Bust?
A decade ago, the path to a successful future seemed sure. Secure a foothold in the emerging information economy, and your city or region was destined to boom.
In the decade between 1997 and 2007, the information sector--which includes jobs in fields from media, publishing and broadcasting to computer programming, data processing, telecommunications and Internet publishing--has barely created a single new net job, while some 16,000,000 were created in other fields.
The biggest losses have been in the telecommunications sub-field, which has shed 400,000 jobs nationwide since its peak in 2000. Not surprisingly the media and publishing industries have also lost ground, while employment in other arenas such as motion pictures, software and data-processing have remained stagnant for much of the decade.
[MORE]
Forbes -May 25, 2009
-
-
Can California Make A Comeback?
And to be sure, you can make a strong case that the California dream is all but dead. The state is effectively bankrupt, its political leadership discredited and the economy, with some exceptions, doing considerably worse than most anyplace outside Michigan. By next year, suggests forecaster Bill Watkins, unemployment could nudge up towards an almost Depression-like 15%.
Despite all this, I am not ready to write off the Golden State. For one thing, I've seen this movie before. The first time was in the mid 1970s. The end of the Vietnam War devastated the state's then powerful defense industry, leaving large swaths of unemployment and generating the first talk about the state's long-term decline.
An even scarier remake came out in the 1990s. Everything was going wrong, from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the unexpected deflating of Japan to a nearly Pharaonic set of plagues, ranging from earthquakes and fires to the awful Los Angeles riots of 1992.
[MORE]
Forbes -May 25, 2009
Let's Snooker The TARP Babies
nook, Texas, a town of less than 600 souls, is best known for being the home of Sodalak's Country Inn, the originator of country fried bacon. It may seem an odd place to launch a return to financial health, but that's exactly what Dean Bass has in mind.
Bass, a veteran banking entrepreneur from Houston, in November bought the tiny First Bank of Snook as part of his plan to build a new financial powerhouse amid the worst economic downturn in a generation. The old bank, which also had a branch 15 miles away in College Station, home to Texas A&M, provided Bass with his charter, as well as access to a strong market on the far periphery of his home town.
Since buying into Snook's bank, now renamed the Spirit of Texas Bank, Bass opened a new branch in the Woodlands, northwest of Houston. Over the past six months, the new bank's assets have doubled to over $70 million, and by the end of the year he expects to break $100 million. Longer-term plans include expanding as well into Austin, Fort Worth and other major Texas markets.
Bass' basic strategy: Take advantage of the stumbling TARP-funded banking giants and steal what he calls their "disenfranchised customers." This approach has implications well beyond the Lone Star State. Like other successful community bankers across the country, Bass believes that the mega-banks have been hopelessly tarred by TARP taxpayer funds. They have been revealed to be, if too big to fail, also too incompetent and poorly run to trust.
[MORE]
The American - May 13, 2009
The Luxury City vs. the Middle Class
The sustainable city of the future will rest on the revival of
traditional institutions that have faded in many of today’s cities.
llen Moncure and Joe Wong first met in school and then fell in love while living in the same dorm at the College of William and Mary. After graduation, they got married and, in 1999, moved to Washington, D.C., where they worked amid a large community of single and childless people.
Like many in their late 20s, the couple began to seek something other than exciting careers and late-night outings with friends. “D.C. was terrific,” Moncure recalled over lunch near her office in lower Manhattan. It was an extension of college. But after a while, you want to get to a different ‘place.’”
The ‘place’ Ellen and Joe looked for was not just a physical location but something less tangible: a sense of community and a neighborhood to raise their hoped-for children. Although they considered suburban locations, as most families do, ultimately they chose the Ditmas Park neighborhood of Brooklyn, where Joe had grown up.
At first, this seemed a risky choice. While Joe was growing up in the 1980s, the neighborhood—a mixture of Victorian homes and modest apartments—had become crime-infested. The old families were moving out, and newer ones were not replacing them. Yet Joe’s Mom still lived there, and they liked the idea of having grandma around for their planned-for family.
In a city that has been losing middle-class families for generations, the resurgence of places like Ditmas Park represents a welcome change. In recent years, child-friendly restaurants and shops have started up along once-decayed Cortelyou Road. More important, some local elementary schools have shown marked improvement, with an increase in parental involvement and new facilities.
[MORE]
Politico - May 12, 2009
Obama's Energy Triangulation
ith the possible exception of health care reform, no major issue presents more political opportunities and potential pitfalls for President Barack Obama than energy. A misstep over energy policy could cause serious economic, social and political consequences that could continue over the next decade.
To succeed in revising American energy policy, the president will need to try to triangulate three different priorities: energy security, environmental protection and the need for economic growth. Right now, the administration would like to think it could have all three, but these concerns often collide more than they align.
A president should have no higher priority than to ensure that America becomes more independent from foreign producers, particularly those outside North America. This represents a great opportunity to diverge from the failure of the Bush administration to reduce this dependence and encourage conservation.
[MORE]
Forbes - May 11, 2009
Austin's Secrets For Economic Success
Austin's success is not surprising since, in many ways, it starts on third base. Two of its greatest assets result from the luck of the draw; it's both a state capital and home to a major research university.
Our ranking of the best cities for job growth includes many college towns--from Fargo, N.D., (home to North Dakota State) to Athens, Ga., (University of Georgia), Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C., (Duke and University of North Carolina) and College Station, Texas (Texas A&M).
Being a state capital also helps. Baton Rouge, La., home to both the state government and Louisiana State University, ranked seventh on our list of the best medium-sized cities for employment. This confluence of institutions also accounts in large part for the relatively decent rankings of two Midwestern cities, Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio, in spite of the generally sad situation in that region.
[MORE]
Forbes - May 5, 2009
America's (Sub)Urban Future
ities today have more political clout than at any time in a half century. Not only does an urbanite blessed by the Chicago machine sit in the White House, but Congress is now dominated by Democratic politicians hailing from either cities or inner-ring suburbs.
Perhaps because of this representation, some are calling for the administration and Congress to "bail out" urban America. Yet there's grave danger in heeding this call. Hope that "the urban president" will solve inner-city problems could end up diverting cities from the kind of radical reforms necessary to thrive in the coming decades.
Demographics and economics make self-help a necessity. Despite the wishful thinking of urbanophile pundits and policymakers, central cities have little realistic chance to reclaim their pre-1950 role as the dominant arbiters of American life.
Short of a catastrophic change, the country will remain predominately made up of suburban, exurban and small town residents. Since 2000, more than four-fifths of metropolitan growth has taken place in suburbs and exurbs. Economically, we see a similar pattern. According to a recent Brookings Institution study of 98 large metropolitan areas, only 21% of employees work within three miles of downtown. The report found that only three regions avoided the decentralizing trend.
[MORE]
Forbes - April 27, 2009
The Worst Cities for Job Growth
ne of the saddest tasks in the annual survey of the best places to do business I conduct with Pepperdine University's Michael Shires is examining the cities at the bottom of the list. Yet even in these nether regions there exists considerable diversity: Some places are likely to come back soon, while others have little immediate hope of moving up. (Please also see "Best Cities For Job Growth" for further analysis.)
The study is based on job growth in 336 regions—called Metropolitan Statistical Areas by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which provided the data—across the U.S. Our analysis looked not only at job growth in the last year but also at how employment figures have changed since 1996. This is because we are wary of overemphasizing recent data and strive to give a more complete picture of the potential a region has for job-seekers. (For the complete methodology, click here.)
Small Sized Cities Medium Sized Cities Large Sized Cities All Cities
[MORE]
Forbes - April 20, 2009
We Must Remember Manufacturing
eneral Motors' reorganization and contemplated bankruptcy represents one possible—and dismal—future trajectory for American manufacturing.
Unlike highly favored Wall Street, which is now employing fancy financial footwork to report a return to profitability, the nation's industrial core is increasingly marginalized by an administration that appears anxious to embrace a decidedly post-industrial future.
Indeed, a recent survey of manufacturers found that most see the stimulus as only "slightly effective" for them. This is no surprise, since the lion's share of the $800 billion is going to bolster the banks, with scraps spread out to green projects, health care and education.
The administration's priorities reflect a new political consciousness that, if not openly anti-industrial, seems to minimize manufacturing's role in the nation's long-term future.
Just examine the demands placed upon General Motors and Chrysler. Their workers are being asked to make huge sacrifices—1,600 new layoffs announced just this week—while their executives are largely shunned and demeaned compared with the generally more gentle treatment Wall Street malefactors get.
This disparity reflects the close ties between Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, chief economic adviser Larry Summers and other top administration officials with the increasingly Democratic financial elite.
[MORE]
Forbes - April 14, 2009
Where are the Best Cities for Job Growth?
In past iterations, we saw many fast-growing economies—some adding jobs at annual rates of 3% to 5%. Meanwhile, some grew more slowly, and others actually lost jobs. This year, however, you can barely find a fast-growing economy anywhere in this vast, diverse country. In 2008, 2% growth made a city a veritable boom town, and anything approaching 1% growth is, oddly, better than merely respectable.
So this year perhaps we should call the rankings not the "best" places for jobs, but the "least worst." But the least worst economies in America today largely mirror those that topped the list last year, even if these regions have recently experienced less growth than in prior years. Our No.1-ranked big city, Austin, for example, enjoyed growth of 1% in 2008—less than a third of its average since 2003.
Small Sized Cities Medium Sized Cities Large Sized Cities All Cities[MORE]
Forbes - April 6, 2009
The American Suburb Is
Bouncing Back
Yet now George Guerrero, a top agent at Advantage Reality in Chino Hills, says he can see the light, with sales picking up and inventories finally beginning to drop. "There's been a real surge in sales," Guerrero says. "The market has come back to where it should be. I think we are ahead of the curve here of the overall recovery."
Of course, for the moment, much of this growth is concentrated in foreclosure sales. However, even developers of new properties, such as Brookfield Homes , also report a strong uptick in sales. In his new developments in the Inland Empire, notes Adrian Foley, head of Brookfield's Los Angeles area office, sales are up 150% since six months ago.
[MORE]
Politico - April 3, 2009
From Bush's Cowboy to Obama's
Collusive Capitalism
ace may be the thing that most obviously distinguishes President Barack Obama from his predecessors, but his biggest impact may be in transforming the nature of class relations — and economic life — in the United States.
In basic terms, the president is overseeing a profound shift from cowboy to what may be best described as collusive capitalism. This form of capitalism rejects the essential free-market theology embraced by the cowboys, supplanting it with a more managed, highly centralized form of cohabitation between the government apparat and the economic elite.
Never as pure as its promoters suggested, cowboy capitalism always depended on subsidies to businesses such as corporate farming, suburban development, pharmaceuticals, energy and aerospace. George W. Bush and the Republican majorities of the early 2000s simply drove this essential hypocrisy to a disastrous extreme by increasing deficits and allowing deregulated financial markets to run wild. In the process, they helped drive the world economy off the cliff.
Not surprisingly, Obama and his backers see their mission to reverse the course. However, the path they are taking may prove no friendlier — and perhaps less so — to the interests of American democracy and the middle class than those of the now-deposed cowboy posse.
[MORE]
Forbes - March 30, 2009
Kansas City and the Great Plains is
a Zone of Sanity
The zone starts somewhere in Texas and goes through much of the Great Plains all the way to the Mexican border. It covers a vast region where unemployment is relatively low, foreclosures still rare and much of the economy centers on the production of basic goods like foodstuffs, specialized equipment and energy.
People and companies in the zone feel the recession, but they are not, to date, in anything like the tailspin seen in places like the upper Great Lakes auto-manufacturing zone, the Sunbelt boom towns or, increasingly, the finance-dependent Northeast. Last month, for example, New York City's unemployment experienced the largest jump on record.
"That whole swath from Texas and North Dakota did not see either the bump or the decline," notes Dan Whitney, a principal at Landmarketing.com, a real estate research company based in Kansas City, Kan. "People have a more conservative nature here. It's just saner."
[MORE]
Newsweek - March 21, 2009
Anger Could Make Us Stronger
People have reasons to be mad, from declining real incomes to mythic levels of greed and excess among the financial elite. Confidence in political and economic institutions remains at low levels, as does belief in the future.
The critical issue facing the new administration is finding useful ways to channel this disenchantment. We know popular anger can also be channeled in unproductive ways. It can serve to further a narrow political agenda—for example, Karl Rove's cynical exploitation of the "culture wars"—or stir up a witch hunt against both real and perceived "threats," as occurred during the McCarthy era. If this were Russia, there would be show trials and executions. We do not and should not do that—but we can still use populist anger to reshape our nation and make it stronger.
[MORE]
Forbes - March 16, 2009
How Elite Environmentalists Impoverish Blue-Collar Americans
Yet today, amid drought conditions, large parcels of the valley – particularly on its west side – are returning to desert; and in the process, an entire economy based on large-scale, high-tech agriculture is being brought to its knees. You can see this reality in the increasingly impoverished rural towns scattered along this region, places like Mendota and Avenal, Coalinga and Lost Hills.
In some towns, unemployment is now running close to 40%. Overall, the water-related farming cutbacks could affect up to 300,000 acres and could cost up to 80,000 jobs.
However, the depression conditions in the great valley reflect more than a mere water shortage. They are the direct result of conscious actions by environmental activists to usher in a new era of scarcity.
[MORE]
Politico - March 9, 2009
Is Obama's Urban Focus Bad News for the Rest of the Countryside?
It has been a half-century since have we seen a presidential inner circle so identified with our densest urban centers. The three most recent Democratic presidents — Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton — all had substantial roots in small-town America that also helped them understand the aspirations of middle-class suburban and exurban voters.
In contrast, this is an administration steeped in the mystique of big cities. Chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is a tough-guy player from the variously effective and consistently corrupt Chicago city machine. The members of the Cabinet and top-tier apparatus are longtime residents of such large cities as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Boston and, of course, Chicago.
[MORE]
Wall Street Journal - February 28, 2009
Democrats Could Face an Internal Civil War as Gentry and Populist Factions Square Off
Broadly speaking, there is a long-standing conflict inside the Democratic Party between gentry liberals and populists. This division is not the same as in the 1960s, when the major conflicts revolved around culture and race as well as on foreign policy. Today the emerging fault-lines follow mostly regional, geographical and, most importantly, class differences.
Gentry liberals cluster largely in cities, wealthy suburbs and college towns. They include disproportionately those with graduate educations and people living on the coasts. Populists tend to be located more in middle- and working-class suburbs, the Great Plains and industrial Midwest. They include a wider spectrum of Americans, including many whose political views are somewhat changeable and less subject to ideological rigor.
[MORE]
Newsweek - March 2, 2009
Death of the Dream
California has come back before, but 'hysterical greens' aren't helping.
California has returned from the dead before, most recently in the mid-1990s. But the odds that the Golden State can reinvent itself again seem long. The buffoonish current governor and a legislature divided between hysterical greens, public-employee lackeys and Neanderthal Republicans have turned the state into a fiscal laughingstock. Meanwhile, more of its middle class migrates out while a large and undereducated underclass (much of it Latino) faces dim prospects. It sometimes seems the people running the state have little feel for the very things that constitute its essence—and could allow California to reinvent itself, and the American future, once again.
The facts at hand are pretty dreary. California entered the recession early last year, according to the Forecast Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and is expected to lag behind the nation well into 2011. Unemployment stands at roughly 10 percent, ahead only of Rust Belt basket cases like Michigan and East Coast calamity Rhode Island. Not surprisingly, people are fleeing this mounting disaster. Net outmigration has been growing every year since about 2003 and should reach well over 200,000 by 2011. This outflow would be far greater, notes demographer Wendell Cox, if not for the fact that many residents can't sell their homes and are essentially held prisoner by their mortgages.
[MORE]
Center for an Urban Future - February 2009
Reviving the City of Aspiration:
A study of the challenges facing New York City’s middle class
In recent years, however, major changes have greatly diminished the city’s ability to both retain and create a sizable middle class. Even as the inflow of new arrivals to New York has surged to levels not seen since the 1920s, the cost of living has spiraled beyond the reach of many middle class individuals and, particularly, families. Increasingly, only those at the upper end of the middle class, who are affluent enough to afford not only the sharply higher housing prices in every corner of the city but also the steep costs of child care and private schools, can afford to stay—and even among this group, many feel stretched to the limits of their resources. Equally disturbing, even in good times, the city’s economy seems less and less capable of producing jobs that pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle in New York’s high-cost environment.
The current economic crisis, which has arrested and even somewhat reversed the skyrocketing price of housing, might offer short-term opportunities to some in the market for homes. But the mortgage meltdown and its aftermath will not change the underlying dynamic: over the past three decades, a wide gap has opened between the means of most New Yorkers and the costs of living in the city. We have seen this dynamic play out even during the last 15 years, as the local economy thrived and crime rates plummeted. Despite these advances, large numbers of middle class New Yorkers have been leaving the city for other locales, while many more of those who have stayed seem permanently stuck among the ranks of the working poor, with little apparent hope of upward mobility.
This is a serious challenge for New York in both good times and bad. A recent survey found the city to be the worst urban area in the nation for the average citizen to build wealth.1 For the first time in its storied history, the Big Apple is in jeopardy of permanently losing its status as the great American city of aspiration.
[MORE]
Requires Adobe Reader
- Washington Post - January 25, 2009
Height of Power
The Washington Fiefdom Looms Larger Than Ever
No longer a jumped-up Canberra or, worse, Sacramento, it seems about to emerge as Pyongyang on the Potomac, the undisputed center of national power and influence. As a new president takes over the White House, the United States' capacity for centralization has arguably never been greater. But it's neither Barack Obama's charm nor his intentions that are driving the centrifocal process that's concentrating authority in the capital city. It's the unprecedented collapse of rival centers of power.
This is most obvious in economic affairs, an area in which the nation's great regions have previously enjoyed significant autonomy. But already the dukes of Wall Street and Detroit have submitted their papers to Washington for vassalage. Soon many other industries, from high-tech to agriculture and energy, will become subject to a Kremlin full of special czars. Even the most haughty boyar may have to genuflect to official orthodoxy on everything from social equity to sanctioned science.
At the same time, the notion of decentralized political power – the linchpin of federalism – is unraveling. Today, once proudly independent – even defiant – states, counties and cities sit on the verge of insolvency. New York and California, two megastates, face record deficits. From California to the Carolinas, local potentates with no power to print their own money will be forced to kiss Washington's ring.
[MORE]
Newsweek - January 26, 2009
The End of Upward Mobility?
American society is based on the idea that 'anyone' can reach the top. But the gap between rich and poor is growing, and the ladder seems to be disappearing.
arack Obama's ascension to the presidency won't end racism, but it does mean race is no longer the dominant issue in American politics. Instead, over the coming decades, class will likely constitute the major dividing line in our society—and the greatest threat to America's historic aspirations. This is a fundamental shift from the last century. Writing in the early 1900s, W.E.B. DuBois observed, "The problem of the 20th century is the problem of the color line." Developments in the ensuing years bore out this assertion. Indeed, before the 1960s, the decade of Barack Obama's birth, even the most talented people of color faced often insurmountable barriers to reaching their full potential. Today in a multiracial America, the path to success has opened up to an extent unimaginable in DuBois's time.
Obama's ascent reflects in particular the rise of the black bourgeoisie from tokens to a force at the heart of the meritocracy. Since the late 1960s, the proportion of African-American households living in poverty has shrunk from 70 percent to 46 percent, while the black middle class has grown from 27 percent to 37 percent. Perhaps more remarkable, the percentage who are considered prosperous—earning more than $107,000 a year in 2007 dollars—expanded from 3 percent to 17 percent.
[MORE]
Washington Post - October 19, 2008
Turns Out There's Good News
on Main St.
s the financial crisis takes down Wall Street, the regular folks on Main Street are biting their nails, watching the toxic tsunami head their way. But for all our nightmares of drowning in a sea of bad mortgages, foreclosed homes and shrunken retirement plans, the truth is that the effects of this meltdown won't be all bad in the long run. In one regard, it could offer our society a net positive: Forced into belt-tightening, Americans are likely to strengthen our family and community ties and to center our lives more closely on the places where we live.
This trend toward what I call "the new localism" has been underway for some years, driven by changing demographics, new technologies and rising energy prices. But the economic downturn will probably accelerate it as individuals and corporations look not to the global stage but closer to home, concentrating and congregating on the Main Streets where we choose to live – in the suburbs, in urban neighborhoods or in small towns.
In his 1972 bestseller, "A Nation of Strangers," social critic Vance Packard depicted the United States as "a society coming apart at the seams." He was only one in a long cavalcade of futurists who have envisioned an America of ever-increasing "spatial mobility" that would give rise to weaker families, childlessness and anonymous communities.
[MORE]
NewGeography.com - October 6, 2008
Post-Imperial Foreign Policy: Our best allies are countries most like US
In the next decades of the 21st Century, our policymakers will need different priorities. When looking for our closest allies, we may well need to look away from current entanglements in unfortunate, far away places and towards a stronger relationship with countries — notably Canada — with whom we share so much.
This requires some understanding of where we are today. The breathless talk of an “end of history” and inevitable democratization that accompanied the fall of the Soviet Union should be swept aside by now. Instead we need to understand both a greater diversity in national systems and, increasingly, a trend towards ever more authoritarian regimes.
Anyone who has studied history should understand this. Authoritarianism has been the default mode for millennia and seems likely to remain so in the foreseeable future.
[MORE]
The Washington Independent- August 18, 2008
Skipping the Drive
Energy Costs May Fuel the Growing Telecommuting Trend
Yet, there has been little talk about what could be the best way for families and individuals to cut energy use: telecommuting. For more than a decade, the number of telecommuters, both full-time and part-time, has been growing rapidly, gaining more market share than any other form of transportation.
This seems certain to continue with the proliferation of broad-band technology — as well as the effect of high gas prices. By 2006, the expansion of home-based work doubled twice as quickly as in the previous decade, and now is close to nine million, according to the National Highway Travel Survey of the Federal Highway Assn.
Nationwide, according to the Gartner Group, in 2007 13 million workers telecommuted at least one day a week, a 16 percent leap from 2004. That number was expected to reach 14 million this year. In addition, more than 22 million individuals, according to Forrester Research, now run businesses from home.
[MORE]
NewGeography.com - August 14, 2008
Minority America
For some on the multicultural left, there exists the prospect of America firmly tilting towards a kind of third world politics, rejecting much of the country’s historical and constitutional legacy. Some left-leaning futurists, like Warren Wagar envision a nation of people fundamentally torn by “racial conflict.” By mid-century, Wagar sees an America suffering from a “gigantic internal struggle” that will eventually lead to its ultimate decline.
The xenophobic right, probably much larger but no less deluded, sees the similar potential for mischief, where American values are undermined by what 19th century Nativists called “ a rising tide of color.” It is part of a scenario that the likes of Pat Buchanan and Samuel Huntington envision as the rise of “revanchist sentiments” along the nation’s Southern border.
[MORE]
A New America Foundation Report
Rebuilding America’s Productive Economy
A Heartland Development Strategy
By
Joel Kotkin, Senior Fellow, New America Foundation
Delore Zimmerman, President, CEO Praxis, Inc.
Over the past two years, North Dakota has in fact gained population, while Massachusetts, which few would describe as “forsaken,” was the only state to lose people. More to the point, although some parts of the Great Plains are experiencing a decline in population, other parts are seeing an increase in jobs, population, and income—in some cases exhibiting higher growth rates than urban coastal America. Fargo, North Dakota, for example, grew by over 20 percent between 1990 and 2000.
Increasingly, skilled individuals and businesses are recognizing that the Heartland possesses many underutilized assets. These include low housing costs, a relatively good business climate, quality schools, a reasonably educated and productive workforce, and available land and other resources for expansion.
[MORE]
Requires Adobe Reader
A Report by the Economic Growth Program, New America Foundation
Supported by the Bernard and Irene Schwartz Foundation
The Planning Center - November 2005
The New Suburbanism
A Realist's Guide to The American Future
These areas, essentially the metropolis outside the traditional urban core, have also increasingly snagged the lion’s share of new economic growth and jobs. Projections for expansion of the built environment—estimated to grow 50 percent by 2030—will be in the suburbs and exurbs, most particularly in sprawling, lower-density and autodependent cities of the South and West. The key challenge facing developers, builders, planners and public officials, will be how to accommodate this growth. This can best be done, not by rejecting the suburban ideal—which would violate the essential desires of most Americans—but by crafting ways to make it work in a better, more efficient and humane way.
[MORE]
Requires Adobe Reader
Click here for information on
The Planning Center
and case studies.
A Los Angeles Times Bestseller!Foreign editions available in Portuguese, Chinese (Social Science Press), and Spanish (Debate Press) as well as from Orion Books in the United Kingdom. Japanese and Korean editions are also available.
We are pleased to share with you
some excellent notices for:
The City: A Global History
by Joel Kotkin
rawing upon the inspiration of urbanists and historians, Kotkin (senior fellow, New America Foundation) attempts to define the city throughout human history and into the future. This brief, readable volume is based on a wide variety of scholarly English-language studies of world cities from the earliest times to the present. Though historical in organization, nearly half of the book is devoted to the recent past and near future. Moving beyond the city's functional aspects of politics, security, and economics, Kotkin focuses on his theme of the city as a powerful moral and spiritual ethos to explain the rise and fall of particular urban cultures. By focusing on the city's cultural and ethical dimension, Kotkin gives readers a powerful lens for understanding the lifespan of historical cities and urban cultures, and perhaps a tool to forecast the city of the future. Summing Up: Highly recommended. General and undergraduate collections."
—J. Rogers
Louisiana State University at Alexandria
March, 2006 issue of Choice: Current Reviews for Academic Libraries.
“Choice reviews significant current books of interest to those in higher education, and both professors and librarians often use it as a reference when making book selections.”
The Fifth Annual Planetizen Top 10 Books List,
2006 Edition
Top 10 Books - 2006 Planetizen
Kotkin does not waste a word. You can read The City in an afternoon, but if you are interested in cities, and the great debate about how to ensure their success, you will turn to it for reference again and again. You will get your money’s worth.
—Owen McShane
Centre for Resource
Management Studies,
New Zealand
Aspiring urban scholars, former urban scholars in need of a refresher course, and anyone with even a passing interest in the urban built form will find The City: A Global History to be a virtual encyclopedia of cities, packaged neatly in a compact book.
—Howard Kozloff
Urban Land"A most interesting and readable account of cities from ancient to modern."
— Tom Condon
Hartford CourantWhat makes a great city? Kotkin, author of an intriguing book, "The City: A Global History," is big on solid infrastructure, good schools and a vibrant middle class. Cities can't exist merely as cultural hubs filled with trendy art galleries and funky restaurants. Sure, those features enrich communities, make life interesting, but vibrant cities don't live on art alone.
— Chicago Tribune
Sacred, safe and busy
Editorial"...Serves to illustrate the background to one of the major problems of our time - and contains important lessons for those who will have to manage our cities in the future."
— The Financial Times
Sacred, safe, busy
By Crispin Tickell
Joel Kotkin, an internationally recognized expert on the economic, social and political trends of cities, knows what makes cities grow, what makes them die, and what it takes to make them worth living in.— By Bill Steigerwald
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Over the course of this breakneck survey of 5,000 years of urban history, Kotkin makes a credible case for his ideas.— Reviewed by Gary Krist
Washington Post"The City informs us of the universality of the urban experience."
— Philippe Petit
The Times of London"The City offers fascinating insight into the ideologies that have created different city designs, and into the natural human desire to gather together to live and for commerce."
— Steven Greenhut
The Orange County Register"The book is taut, elegant, informative and lots of fun to read. When I got to the end, I wished it had been longer. "
— Alan Ehrenhalt
Governing Magazine"...an elegant paean to a form of living so many of us complain of while we reap its benefits."
—Kelly Jane Torrance
The American Enterprise“Unique and powerful insights into urban life… This book is a great read.”
—Bob Lanier, Mayor of Houston, 1992-1998
"If you want to understand why the future of American and European cities is mixed at best; if you want to understand why George Bush won the 2004 election, you need to read Joel Kotkin's account of how and why cities have developed and declined."
—Fred Siegel, author of Prince of the City: Giuliani's New York and the Genius of American Life, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute
* * *
“A compelling and original synthesis that belongs on the urbanist's bookshelf with Lewis Mumford, Peter Hall, and Fernand Braudel.”
—Witold Rybczynski, Martin & Margy Meyerson Professor of Urbanism, School of Design, Professor of Real Estate, Wharton School
* * *
"No one knows more about cities than Joel Kotkin, and has more to teach us about them. In The City, Kotkin takes us on a brisk and invigorating tour of cities from the Babylon of ancient times to the burgeoning exurbs of today. It is impossible not to learn a lot from this book."
—Michael Barone, Senior Writer, U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics
[MORE]
Current Events
Thursday, April 23
Santa Barbara County Economic Outlook Seminar - 2009
Granada Theatre, Santa Barbara
Monday, April 27
Q 2009
Paramount Theater
Austin, TX
Wednesday, April 29
Center for the Study of Government and the Individual
Colorado Springs, CO
Monday, May 4
"What Kind of Economy Does Your Community Want to Develop?"
US Chamber of Commerce
Chicago, IL
Thursday, September 10
High Desert Leaders Economic Summit
Victorville, CA
Wednesday, September 23
Kentucky League of Cities Annual Conference
Covington, KY
Wednesday, October 7
Johnson County Partnership Economic Development Summit
Overland Park, KS[Consulting] [Readings] [Commentary] [Books]
[Contacts] [Schedule] [Biography] [Home]
Copyright © 2009 Joel Kotkin
|
Commentary |
|
|
|
By any reasonable measure, the urban core of Cincinnati needs more of these “traditional institutions” to build into the infrastructure of the city. What that means is this: middle class families need to start churches in the cities, as well as revitalize old and dying congregations, by moving into the city and enmeshing themselves into local neighborhoods. This creates a bedrock upon which future generations can build.
Everything is Backwards - Blog Since Tuesday, when Californians shrugged off Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's warning of "fiscal Armageddon" and voted down a package of budget-balancing ballot measures, everybody has wondered what the worst part of Armageddon might be. Fire station closures? Prisoner releases? Education funding cuts? Health care funding cuts? Messy public parks? The worst part of Armageddon so far seems to be the not knowing. At least that's the part most of us can agree about. Contra Costa Times The economic picture for thousands of working people across Wisconsin won't improve until the job picture brightens. And on the jobs front, there's some good news for Madison, which was just rated No. 1 among medium-sized cities for so-called Next Generation workers. These are younger, tech-savvy people who want "a good job in a great city," according to Next Generation Consulting, which produced the list. Madison Capital Times For people seeking economic opportunity, Texas is becoming what California has been since the Great Depression, says Los Angeles urbanist and author Joel Kotkin. Texas recently "ran the table" in a recent list of "Best Cities for Jobs" prepared by Kotkin for New Geography and Forbes. Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Dallas were ranked as the top five large metro areas in the country to find a job. Fort Worth Star-Telegram The industry's instability has shaken the Great Lakes region, creating some of the highest unemployment figures since the Great Depression. Yet the strings that have been attached to the bailouts seem to favor downsizing-obsessed managers and foreign investors looking for cheap entry into the US market. The Nation So here's how Kotkin and some of the analysts he interviewed see recovery happening: Economic torpor will persist a little longer, but when economies in the Northeast and California stabilize, home prices in those areas will stop falling and perhaps bounce back slightly. Consumers will be able to sell their homes again, and Sunbelt cities can expect a fresh surge of new residents freed from the constraints of dramatically upside-down mortgages. Las Vegas Review-Journal
Tulsa World The Economist And there's hope for the future, KC. Kotkin says its "possible to project a very bright future for Kansas City — and across the zone of sanity." Unless there is a massive shift in conditions, the zone should see a return to prosperity earlier than places bogged down with excess foreclosures, shuttering industries, soaring taxes and ever-tightening regulation. The Pitch - Kansas City Inland Valley Daily Bulletin USA Today “Yes on B” spent over $1 million on TV time, airing sophisticated ads depicting the measure as a job creator for minority men and women installing solar panels. Mailboxes across the city were crammed with expensive mailers explaining the virtues of giving the solar-installation work largely to city workers at the Department of Water and Power, rather than opening up the work to the area’s burgeoning private-sector solar businesses. LA Weekly The cost of services continues to outpace inflation. Programs are being squeezed out by things the government was not providing in the halcyon 1950s and early 1960s, including Medi-Cal and some welfare programs. And the state has been reluctant to embrace new ways of funding services while holding back state money to plug other holes in the budget. Los Angeles Times The deep recession, with its lost jobs and falling home values nationwide, poses another kind of threat: to the character of neighborhoods settled by the young creative class, from the Lower East Side in Manhattan to Beacon Hill in Seattle. The tide of gentrification that transformed economically depressed enclaves is receding, leaving some communities high and dry. The New York Times Affluent California liberals are seeking through politics validation of their lifestyle choices even though they're mostly irrelevant to state public policy. (You could make the same argument about cultural conservatives seeking validation for their lifestyle choices, at least in states where they're thicker on the ground than they are in California.) US News & World Report The world's leading maker of microprocessors plans to create 7,000 jobs in new and expanded plants that will churn out computer chips 30% more powerful than the current generation of chips. But California-based Intel won't make them in California. Instead, the company is expanding in Oregon, Arizona and New Mexico. Anywhere but California, which is now so unfriendly to business, even its home-grown firms don't want to expand there. Investor's Business Daily Obama's White House is not only urban but also Chicago-centric. Senior adviser Valerie Jarrett, head of intergovernmental relations at the White House, has run Chicago's transit authority and was CEO of a company responsible for large tracts of public housing. Chief of staff Rahm Emanuel represented Chicago in the House. Arne Duncan, the education secretary, was the reformist chief of Chicago's schools. Senior adviser David Axelrod and White House social secretary Desiree Rogers also are from Chicago. Michelle Obama, who grew up on the South Side of Chicago, worked for Mayor Richard Daley and later managed relations between the University of Chicago Medical Center and the low-income neighborhood around it. USA Today In Vallejo, a city of 115,000 people, 1,700 homes are in foreclosure or owned by banks. The highest foreclosure rate in the USA — 9.5% last year — was in the California city of Stockton, which Forbes magazine declared as America's "most miserable city." USA Today Joel Kotkin, a research fellow at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., and a co-author of the report, is hoping home prices take a big tumble. “I know it will offend some people in the real estate business,” Mr. Kotkin said, “but a 30 percent drop in real estate prices would be a very healthy thing for New York City over time.” New York Observer The fledgling tech firms left for the same reason middle-class New Yorkers are leaving: The costs of living and working in New York were far too high. The combined city and state tax of 17.6 percent on corporate profits is the nation's highest, while start-ups are hit by the city's highest-in-America's 10.5 percent income tax, plus Gotham's nearly unique 4 percent unincorporated-business tax. NY Post Crain's New York Business
KeepMeCurrent.com Rocky Mountain News San Bernardino Sun Population shifts have occurred so rapidly in recent years that there are now few all-white pockets left. (For example, in 1990, about 538 counties had Hispanics, and by 2004, 907 counties did, Frey says.) Joel Kotkin, executive editor of NewGeography .com, made the point that when he speaks in Canada or Australia, he often talks to all-white audiences, but that never happens in the U.S. anymore, no matter where he goes. Some communities have changed dramatically in a generation. One analyst noted that the North Carolina mill town where John Edwards grew up is now half Hispanic." Newsweek How is this a model for cities?" asks Mr. Kotkin, whose new book, The City: A Global History, is winning international acclaim. "Are they all supposed to shrink? If Pittsburgh is so dynamic, why more deaths than births and little immigration?" Fewer taxpayers, more pensions, more extravagant spending; a base made up of nontaxable "businesses," like universities and hospitals, Kotkin notes. "Is this financially sustainable?" Of course not. Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Courrier International Amenity is in the eye of the beholder," says Joel Kotkin, the author of The City: A Global History. He has ridiculed amenity-driven development as an attempt to draw the "hipster set" with the "lure of 'coolness' " while ignoring basic city services. "To some a place with nice parks, low crime, good schools, and good jobs is paradise but boring for visitors." Boston Globe
Santa Maria
Times "It is amazing to me, in a city of this size, that he's going to be re-elected by acclamation," said Joel Kotkin, presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and the author of The City: A Global History. "It's amazing that no major opposition in a major city has developed against him." Kotkin and other critics give the mayor low marks for what they see as a lack of attention to detail. They credit him only for his follow-through on efforts to increase the LAPD by 1,000 officers, a goal that could be met in 2009. Contra Costa Times
But as the author Joel Kotkin made clear on these pages earlier this week, we should not rush off just to spend money. He wrote, "We should think beyond temporary stimulus and make-work jobs and about investments that will propel the economy well into this century." In other words, we do not need magnificent sports stadiums, but more efficient electric power lines. We must ask how the money will make the nation and the state more competitive in the future. Delaware News Journal The Wall Street Journal
In an article last month in the American magazine, urban historian Joel Kotkin contended that the loss of residents reflected a state in trouble. He blamed a Byzantine state government system, a failure to identify the housing crisis and a growing division between rich and poor. "Today our Golden State appears headed, if not for imminent disaster, then toward an unanticipated, maddening and largely unnecessary mediocrity," Kotkin wrote. Los Angeles Times Barack Obama has said that he would start an infrastructure project that will dwarf Dwight Eisenhower’s highway program. If, indeed, we are going to have a once-in-a-half-century infrastructure investment, it would be great if the program would build on today’s emerging patterns. It would be great if Obama’s spending, instead of just dissolving into the maw of construction, would actually encourage the clustering and leave a legacy that would be visible and beloved 50 years from now. The New York Times This downturn has a fundamentally more serious air than those of the past. The social, economic and political forces Kotkin cites are very ominous. We are in deep trouble on a variety of fronts and overarching everything is that we have, consciously or unconsciously, rendered ourselves functionally ungovernable – chronically unable to address the economic and social ills that plague us. Sacramento Bee
But Then What Blog Even though he was a national co-chairman of Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, Villaraigosa landed a coveted spot Thursday on Obama's economic transition team. Two days earlier, he helped secure passage of three local ballot measures that will pour up to $50 billion into new transit projects, public schools and community college buildings. His work on behalf of those tax hikes — Measures J, Q and R — drew high praise from business leaders who had said they were critical to rebuilding the area's infrastructure. Los Angeles Times Stereotypes? Maybe. But the two presidential candidates and their running mates have used numerous phrases that link attitude with geographical location — "Northeast liberal elite," "Hollywood elite," "Bible Belt," small-town "real America" and small-town folks who "cling to guns or religion." California will most likely turn blue on election night, with its electoral votes going to Democratic candidate Barack Obama. Texas is one of the states that will almost certainly go red, throwing its support to Republican candidate John McCain. Ventura County Star Kotkin said he believes the eastern suburbs are becoming less conservative, as the cops and firefighters who liked to settle here are being priced out. In their place, he said, have come highly educated young people, many in high-tech businesses or the entertainment industry. Until this year, registered Republicans held a slight majority in the county, but that flipped to the Democrats in April. Voter registration now stands at about 39.7 percent Democrat, 38.3 percent Republican. Sacramento Bee Joel Kotkin
Interview: The New York Observer Kotkin said he expects the current trend of migration to suburban areas to expand to include more growth in rural and midsized cities. He said he thinks older workers and retirees in particular would trade the hassles of city life for a more simple life complete with activities such as bird watching and gardening that are made easier with more open space. Grand Forks Herald The GOP's exodus to the exurbs was a telling metaphor for the changing face of Hamilton County politics, where the once rock-solid Republicanism of Ohio's third-largest county is giving way to an emerging Democratic powerhouse. Democrats are predicting they'll turn Hamilton County "blue" — giving the Democratic candidate for president a victory here — for the first time since Lyndon B. Johnson steamrolled Barry Goldwater in a 1964 landslide. Cincinnati Enquirer Plummer bought the house, and after about two months living there, he already knows a half-dozen neighbors he sees regularly — a result created more by design than chance. That's because he lives in a "traditional neighborhood development," an increasingly popular kind of community designed to encourage kinship by the way its houses are built, sidewalks and streets laid out and amenities placed within walking distance to the homes. The options for this sort of living are growing in the Houston area as developers bet more people are seeking a sense of community and a neighborhood where they're less reliant on their cars. Houston Chronicle Milwaukee’s differing history and circumstances mean it can’t just ape Houston, says Kotkin. But its “sewer socialist” history of building infrastructure to accommodate growth admirably let middle-income families afford what most wanted, a house and yard. The opposite view, that “we’re going to force everyone to live very densely,” as he puts it, may suit a hemmed-in San Francisco, but it means middle- and lower-income families must accept modest circumstances. “We have to accommodate people’s aspirations, not squelch them,” he said. Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Obama's life story resonates in California, a multicultural crossroads where many share similar stories: an outsider with contrasting identities who relies on character, charisma and smarts to conquer adversity in a cultural maelstrom. Yet, as he prepares to accept the Democratic nomination in Denver this week, introducing Americans to the complexities of Obama's life has become a central challenge as he seeks to promote himself as the updated, multi-cultural version of the American tale. San Jose Mercury News
Recent census numbers show that ethnic minorities in the United States will represent more than half of the country by the year 2050. Midmorning speaks with two futurists on how these changing demographics will impact American communities. Minnesota Public Radio If Obama makes it to the White House, some of the credit
will go to Pritzker for organizing the best-financed campaign in U.S.
history. She's tapped such wealthy donors as hedge fund manager Kenneth
Griffin and Warren Buffett, who was the main attraction at a pair of
$28,500-per-person Chicago fundraisers in July. And she's pulled in
first-time contributors with their $5 pledges, generating an e-mail list of
5 million and counting. Bloomberg The Austin American-Statesman The Australian Bond Companies predicted it would achieve a return for its investors of more than 42% for Blossom Plaza, a complex of condominiums and stores being built in Chinatown with at least $41 million in subsidies. The number so disturbed redevelopment officials that they wrote an agreement to reduce the size of its subsidy if Blossom Plaza exceeds 10% on its return after costs. Bond Companies later said the 42% figure was wrong and should be readjusted to the low teens. Los Angeles Times Tacoma News Tribune Los Angeles Daily News
World On the Web Villaraigosa's economic strategies are not without critics as he grapples with the budget shortfall and the prospect of layoffs if property tax and other revenues don't pick up soon. "The economy is pretty much dead in the water and his strategy is all smoke and mirrors," said Joel Kotkin, presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University. "It's all based on real estate, and I think the city is in the worst shape it has been since the riots. Los Angeles has no real economic-development strategy." Los Angeles Times In fact, much of the eastern San Gabriel Valley has more in common with Taipei, Beijing or Shanghai than it does with neighboring Los Angeles. Here, Asian-immigrant entrepreneurs have transformed once-sleepy suburbia into a Chinatown like no other. They are far from struggling newcomers trying to achieve the American Dream in other Chinese enclaves such as Monterey Park and San Gabriel farther to the west. Here, the power of Chinese culture and its economy is on display, said Joel Kotkin, an expert in urban affairs and ethnic economies. Los Angeles Times The Edmonton Journal Patrick LaForge, chairman of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, says the chamber's board members all read Kotkin's latest book, The City: A Global History. They decided Edmontonians should hear his ideas, especially at this critical time in the region's evolution. "These are the questions we need to be asking," says LaForge. "What are the ingredients in a great city? Where do they come from? What are their characteristics? We need to think of ourselves as a great Northern city, a great northern marketplace, a trading post, if you will, of human resources. The phrase, 'It's good enough' has sort of prevailed here for a long time. But what's possible is a hell of a lot better than what we have." The Edmonton
Journal
|
