Is There a New Religious Revival?
This newly released report — authored by Bheki Mahlobo and Joel Kotkin, attempts to measure three specific dimensions of what appears to be a growing, albeit still modest, shift away from strict secularism. Below is an excerpt and a link to the full report.
“For most of the past century, religion was widely assumed to be suffering inexorable decline. Faith was largely seen as the detritus of history, a backward array of superstitions with little utility in the modern era. Its triumph could only be counted among the “pretty thick.”
Once society became affluent and educated, it was generally argued that people would instead find satisfaction in the secular triumphs of comfort, convenience, and higher living standards. The expectation was linear and uniform, ending in the discarding of the rituals and metaphysical claims of the past.
The decline of religion remains a fundamental reality in most Western countries, particularly in Europe where over 50 percent of those under age 40 do not identify with any religion. Even in more religious America, according to one expert, there may be as many as 100,000 empty churches over the next few years. Meanwhile the ranks of “Nones”, those outside religious communities, have grown so large that, taken together they as numerous as the Catholics or evangelical Protestants in the US.
Yet surprisingly there are signs that religion is already enjoying more than a nascent revival. This is not to exaggerate — secularism remains deeply entrenched — but there is clearly something afoot. The data emerging from the 2020s suggest not that we are witnessing the burial of a dead God but a complex spiritual restructuring that intersects with economic mobility, demographic resilience, and a profound intellectual realignment.
To be sure, this shift is far from universal and the general trend away from religion remains in place and is particularly marked among the Millennials. Yet, for the first time in decades, Pew now notes, in the US at least, Christianity has pulled out of its nosedive as more people begin to see the efficacy, and the rewards, of religious faith and practice. There are some signs, for example, of rising church attendance among Gen Z, notably men.
This report attempts to measure three specific dimensions of what appears to be a growing, albeit still modest, shift away from strict secularism. First, we examine the rising social utility of faith. This section challenges the persistent stereotype that religious adherence acts as a cognitive or economic drag on individuals. Indeed, longitudinal data from the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa reveal that religious communities function as potent engines of human capital accumulation, risk mitigation, and social capital. These mechanisms effectively propel adherents up the socioeconomic ladder.
Then we analyze the drivers of the contemporary religious revival. Even in places where religion continues to decline, among the remaining faithful the shift is away from more liberal faiths to those hewing closer to traditional values. For many, traditional religion provides existential security and creates a sustainable sense of community, particularly among people coping with modern atomization. Over time, this shift could power a demographic resurgence reflecting the significant fertility advantage of faithful populations, most notably in Africa.
Third, the report documents a shift in the epistemic upper class. This group is defined as the scientists, philosophers, and public intellectuals who shape the boundaries of acceptable discourse. The aggressive New Atheism of the early 2000s is now challenged by a countermovement in the scientific community that views religious tradition not as a delusion to be eradicated but as a sustainable civilization operating system. Bolstered by demographic shifts, this movement may presage an intentional return to faith that could alter with our understanding of what it is to be modern.
About the authors
Bheki Mahlobo is an economist and Partner at Frans Cronje Private Clients. He began his career at the Centre for Risk Analysis before joining the financial consulting firm ETM Analytics as a financial analyst. Specialising in economic and financial markets research as well as political trend analysis, Bheki has briefed numerous companies on South Africa’s long-term economic, market, and political outlook. He has drafted an extensive range of analytical notes and reports and he is co-author of a chapter in the book The Future of Cities, presented by the American Enterprise Institute and written in collaboration with Joel Kotkin.
Raised in the rural Eastern Cape village of Lupapasi and later relocating to Johannesburg for his schooling, Bheki brings a unique perspective to his work. He is currently pursuing a Masters in Behavioural and Computational Economics at Chapman University, further enhancing his expertise in the field.
Joel Kotkin is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and a senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. He writes a regular column for The National Post (Canada) and Spiked but contributes regularly to Unherd, LA Times, The Spectator, National Review, The Telegraph and City Journal. His last book was The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class (Encounter: 2021).
