Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent cordial sojourn to Washington, and his claim of a close relationship with Dr. Demento, leaves some hope that for a reconciliation between our two countries. This is a necessity for the United States, which needs its closest neighbour as an ally, but even more important for a Canada largely dependent on U.S. markets, tourists, and military power.
This is not an audacious or disrespectful statement. Throughout history smaller nations — in this case in terms of population and economy — have always tried to secure alliances with larger and more powerful ones. Sometimes it makes sense to gain leverage by feinting a possible shift in allegiances, but that does not sweep away strategic logic.
Simply put, Canada, whose economy has been a laggard in recent years, and already feels the impact of tariffs, has limited options about its long-term post-Trump future. Like other nations Canada will be forced to support one of two alliances, one anchored by the U.S. and the other by China, with strong ties to Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
There are some who see a pro-China tilt as the path to Canada’s “independence.” Fortunately, Carney, however daft on some issues, recognizes China’s aspiration in the Arctic to constitute a leading “geopolitical threat” to the country’s prosperity and security. The Canadian military is already acting to monitor aggressive moves by China and its more trigger-happy sidekick, Russia.
In this tussle, Carney may hope that the EU or other countries could help, but in reality, only the U.S. has the wherewithal to resist Chinese encroachment. The binational alliance may be hard to endure under Trump, but ultimately the U.S. is a vastly superior choice. The once ultra green Carney suggesting the Keystone XL pipeline be resurrected demonstrates that we should be fated by geography to progress together.
Canada also may want to consider what to expect in a China-centric world. China’s historic strategy focuses not on establishing colonies but vassal states from which it can draw what it lacks, mainly raw materials, and customers for its increasingly sophisticated industrial machine. This is precisely why China has targeted Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, keeping them as suppliers of rare metals, copper, and foodstuffs.
In virtually no case does China try to lift up its client states to the status of competitors, as the U.S. did for Japan, Italy, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan. China knows what it wants. In terms of strategic materials — a major trade issue — China has systematically secured preferential access through long-term partnerships that exclude American or Western competitors.
Read the rest of this piece at: National Post.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
Photo: World Economic Forum, via Flickr under CC 2.0 License.
