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You are here: Home1 / Articles2 / Politics

Kamala Harris’s California Record Will Haunt Her

July 29, 2024/in California, Politics

A recent Politico article breathlessly reported on Kamala Harris’s enhanced standing as the newly anointed “favourite daughter” of the Bay Area political cabal, led by Nancy Pelosi, powerful Silicon Valley oligarchs, and progressive Hollywood moguls. But as this group celebrates its most recent political coup against the hapless and outmatched Joe Biden, few are examining what their policy agenda has imposed on my adopted home state. This could spell trouble for Harris in November.

Rather than being able to show real improvements, Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom and their backers specialise in virtue-signalling, particularly on issues of race, gender and climate. Their regulation-heavy approach has forged a neo-feudal state that now has the highest gaps nationally between the rich and the vast majority of inhabitants, who suffer severe housing shortages and the country’s highest levels of poverty. It’s no wonder, then, that four in 10 Californians are considering an exit.

More revealing, at the elite level, has been the emergence of the tech Right in Silicon Valley. Until this year, liberals such as Harris could rely on California’s uniform backing. But many, including people involved in startups, are beginning to switch sides. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who recently compared California to the declining Roman Empire, has joined Elon Musk and David Sacks in endorsing Trump. In fact, Musk has not only backed Trump but also announced he was pulling both X and SpaceX out of the state.

If this trend continues, California’s political climate could start to change. While that may not happen overnight, the Golden State could lose two or three House seats to the GOP. This should be a warning sign to Harris if she intends on implementing a California plan for the rest of America as president.

Members of the California cabal are only dimly aware of changes taking place outside their bubble. Newsom-backers such as economist Chris Thornberg even claim that the loss of SpaceX — arguably the most important exploration company in the world — is only a matter of a few C-suite jobs and “Elon being Elon”. This repeats earlier claims in the progressive media about the unimportance of 3.8 million net domestic migrants leaving since 2000.

The bigger problem, though, will be when the Harris campaign has to defend her efforts, in both California and the Senate, on open borders, race quotas, banning fracking, wiping out parental rights and the use of fossil fuels. If these policies are increasingly unpopular in California, just imagine how they will be received in Texas, Michigan or Wisconsin, or for that matter in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

To win in November, the Vice President will have to somehow place distance between the failures of her backers and her campaign. If not, we could see the second coming of Trump — their greatest nightmare and the ironic legacy of the cabal’s politics.

This piece first appeared at UnHerd.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Photo: Kamala Harris during her tenure as Attorney General of California Wikimedia in Public Domain.

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Kamala_Harris_inauguration_as_Attorney_General.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-29 07:27:482024-07-28 13:36:02Kamala Harris’s California Record Will Haunt Her

This is the End of the Democratic Party as We Knew It

July 27, 2024/in Politics

The end of Joe Biden’s presidency also signals the demise of the old Democratic Party, with its roots in liberal ideals and advocacy for ‘the common man’. Read more

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/pres-biden-july4-2024.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-27 07:11:582024-07-24 11:17:43This is the End of the Democratic Party as We Knew It

Biden Democrats All Too Happy to Dismiss Political Violence of the Left

July 25, 2024/in Politics

The shot that grazed Donald Trump’s ear is just another reminder of how the United States, unique among the dominant English-speaking countries, remains subject to both actual violence and threats of violence. Over the past two centuries, four American presidents have been killed, and there have been numerous attempts, most recently on Ronald Reagan.

In contrast, only one British prime minister has been assassinated. Not a single Canadian or Australian leader has been killed, although one Aussie prime minister, Harold Holt, disappeared in 1967; many think he drowned in a swimming accident, although some also see political conspiracies. Political violence, of course, occurs in all these countries, but not anything like what we see in the United States.

Why is this? One has to start with the country’s origins. The United States is the only British colony with a predominately Anglo population to break violently from the mother country. Canada, Australia and, of course, the United Kingdom’s political systems have a history of accommodation, with the Crown gradually ceding power to the colonies as well as the British commoners. Continuity, as epitomized by the Royal family, has its advantages.

America, on the other hand, was a revolutionary state and appealed to an independent spirit that, at times, lurched into violence. Compared to other British offshoots, Americans tend to resist control, even when it may be useful, as in the case of guns. America is also a military superpower and has a long history of engaging in warfare well beyond its borders. Unlike Britain, which is no longer an empire, nor any of its other offshoots, the U.S. remains a dominant global force.

To be sure, Canada and Australia control larger land masses, but the U.S. is by far the largest anglophone country (unless you include India, where many speak English as a second language). Its population of over 330 million is almost three times as large as the combined inhabitants of Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. Its size and diversity create a naturally complex, and combative, political culture.

Federalism, a critical part of the U.S. Constitution, is designed to accommodate regional differences in a way that’s not as evident today in Britain and Australia, and increasingly Canada, despite the unique status of Quebec. In the U.S., different states and regions can maintain very different political economies and cultures. A large part of the country, the south as well as Texas, were once independent countries, and fought bitterly to retain their independence. This part of the country — which is becoming increasingly dominant, both demographically and economically — forms the base of support for Trump and the GOP.

These divides, and the country’s rebellious roots, help explain some of its increasingly vicious political culture. Canadians, Australians and Brits may have their heated squabbles, but in the U.S., the divides are sharper. This can be seen by the attempts on both sides to blame the assassination attempt on the rhetoric of the other side.

Read the rest of this piece at National Post.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Photo: Ted Eytan via Flickr under CC 2.0 License.

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/left-wing-protest-wash-dc.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-25 07:04:342024-07-19 12:07:42Biden Democrats All Too Happy to Dismiss Political Violence of the Left

After Biden the Democrats Should Welcome Defeat

July 23, 2024/in Politics

Had Joe Biden remained the Democrats’ presidential candidate, the party would have faced the prospect of a loss, even a drubbing, in November’s election. Read more

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/biden-leaves-stage.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-23 07:25:572024-07-22 09:11:25After Biden the Democrats Should Welcome Defeat

Trump is Dividing America’s Oligarchs

July 20, 2024/in Politics

The shot heard around the world may have been aimed at Donald Trump’s head, but it could also put extra cash in his pocket. In the aftermath of last weekend’s assassination attempt, two prominent billionaires – Elon Musk and investor Bill Ackman – announced their support for the former president. Two other formerly Trump-sceptical billionaires, Paul Singer and Ken Griffin, are also reportedly considering joining them.

The importance of these endorsements, as well as others from both Wall Street and Silicon Valley, reflect America’s increasingly oligarch-dominated political system. Traditionally, populist Democrats would have made much more of the announcements. In 2018, Rhode Island senator Sheldon Whitehouse claimed Trump was in the ‘back pocket’ of billionaires, but the attack didn’t quite land – not least because Whitehouse himself and his Democratic allies have become major recipients of oligarchic funds. Democrats received far more ‘dark money’ than the GOP in 2020.

Even recently, a spokesman suggested that Joe Biden was sending the message that ‘America is not for sale’. That is despite the fact that in 2020 Biden easily outraised Trump with a major advantage from donors in Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood, just as Hillary Clinton had done in 2016. While some Democrats posture about seeking to reduce oligarchic power, they equally want to ensure that it’s their oligarchs who thrive.

None of this is to say that Trump was previously lacking his own reliable trove of right-wing donors. Investors like Jeff Yass and Timothy Mellon have given tens of millions to his campaigns. Trump donors tend to be rich investors who are in control of their own funds and less beholden to shareholders or a board of directors. In contrast, big corporate elites have, at least until now, favoured the Democrats and Biden. They have done this through contributions not only to Democratic candidates, but also to left-leaning nonprofits.

Indeed, look at Biden’s top donors this year and you see a host of tech luminaries. His top-10 supporters are either tech executives or financial moguls, led by Michael Bloomberg and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman. The impact of tech companies is amplified by their employees, including at Netflix, Nvidia, Adobe, IBM, Google, Facebook and Amazon. Workers at these companies all overwhelmingly backed the Democrats in 2020. Amazon employees gave 77 per cent of their donations to Biden. At Google it was 88 per cent. At Netflix and Nvidia it was over 90 per cent.

These same tech oligarchs also increasingly dominate the media, providing greatly needed lucre to the new progressive Pravdas of the modern world. Some of the most influential party organs include the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, the Atlantic, Time and the New Republic – the latter of which recently published a new cover story painting Trump as Hitler. So extreme is some tech moguls’ hatred of Trump that an adviser to Hoffman suggested that the shooting may have been a false-flag operation.

Read the rest of this piece at Spiked.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Photo: Photo: Marla Aufmuth / TED via Flickr under CC 2.0 License.

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/dividing-americas-oligarchs-politically.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-20 07:10:582024-07-18 09:15:49Trump is Dividing America’s Oligarchs

Truths From a ‘Settler Colony’ That Needs to Embrace a United Future

July 12, 2024/in Demographics, Politics

Like Americans, Australians, New Zealanders and the British, Canadians are being schooled to believe that their country is essentially a “settler” colony, whose very existence largely echoes the racist European past. Read more

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Canada-Day-parade.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-12 07:25:362024-07-15 10:44:49Truths From a ‘Settler Colony’ That Needs to Embrace a United Future

The Democrats’ Civil War Has Begun

July 6, 2024/in Politics

Let the great Democratic civil war begin. The impending demise of Joe Biden and the patched-together coalition he represents is threatening to accelerate the very intra-party conflicts his presidency was meant to assuage.

Read more

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/biden-visits-colorado-nrel.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-06 14:15:282024-07-19 12:13:23The Democrats’ Civil War Has Begun

Biden’s California Successors Would Be Terrible for America

July 3, 2024/in California, Politics

Two Californians, Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris, are widely seen as the most likely successors to doddering President Joe Biden. But, as things stand, one has to wonder if the rest of America really yearns to become a greater California.

Embracing “the California model” may have worked when Ronald Reagan rode on his white horse, or even when Jerry Brown projected a future shaped by technology and space exploration. But with the current crop of leaders in charge, the model is a sure loser.

The facts are grim. Newsom and Harris may like to claim California’s preeminence as the hotbed of new ideas, racial justice, and economic progress, but that has little to do with reality. California suffers from the highest poverty rates in the US, tepid job growth and some of the country’s highest rates of unemployment. Once the supreme beacon for talented people from around the country and the world, it is coming to terms with its new problem of massive net emigration, an exodus that has increased sharply since 2019 — the year Newsom became governor — and was made worse by the pandemic. The state has, however, attracted one group: it now has 30% of the nation’s homeless population.

When it comes to education, California was once an admired leader. The state primary school system is now ranked consistently among the worst in the country. Despite being the “home” of social justice, the results are particularly poor for minority students. For example, Californian Hispanics, who make up roughly 40% of the overall population, do far worse when it comes to educational attainment than their Latino counterparts in Right-leaning states such as Texas and Florida. This has a huge impact on potential earnings in later life.

California is also a great example of how not to rebuild America’s shoddy infrastructure. The rebuilding of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge has seen costs rise from an estimated $250 million in 1995 to $6.5 billion in September 2013. Or take the California high-speed rail line, which Newsom has refused to abandon despite costs that have escalated from $33 billion in 2008 to as much as $100 billion today.

How about climate policy, which has dominated the agenda under Newsom? It’s had negligible impact on warming but has done a fair job of undermining the prospects of the state’s largely Latino working class. Even without adjusting for costs, no California metro area ranks in the US top 10 in terms of well-paying, blue-collar jobs. But four — Ventura, Los Angeles, San Jose, and San Diego — sit among the bottom 10.

These are the facts that naturally haunt either of these candidates. Newsom and Harris may be able to fool the star-struck reporters of the mainstream media into waxing about the state’s current status, but Californians know better. In one recent opinion survey, some 57% said the state was headed in the wrong direction, up from 37% in 2020. Four in 10 are considering an exit.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Marshall Toplansky is a widely published and award-winning marketing professional and successful entrepreneur. He co-founded KPMG’s data & analytics center of excellence and now teaches and consults corporations on their analytics strategies.

Homepage photo: composite of photos of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom via Flickr under CC 2.0 License.

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/harris-newsom-not-biden-successors.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-07-03 07:25:142024-07-15 10:44:31Biden’s California Successors Would Be Terrible for America

The Election: An Old Picture Changes

June 26, 2024/in Demographics, Politics

For much of modern American history, the support enjoyed by the two main political parties has hewed to a particular ethnic pattern. Republicans, notes political historian Michael Barone, have largely been the party of “white Protestants,” while the Democrats have been largely “a coalition” of disparate groups: Catholic ethnics, Latinos, blacks, Jews, and working people of all races. Read more

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/des-moines-voters.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2024-06-26 07:25:252025-12-23 09:45:37The Election: An Old Picture Changes

The Space Race Gets Serious

June 24, 2024/in Politics

We are shifting from the early era of space exploration to a more serious phase extending ever further from Earth’s orbit, focused on key opportunities such as mining and manufacturing as well as military purposes. Read more

https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/First_Launch_of_SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy.jpg 675 1200 Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky2024-06-24 07:25:522024-06-21 10:36:53The Space Race Gets Serious
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