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You are here: Home1 / Articles
Biden in Iowa during the 2020 Presidential campaignGage Skidmore; used under CC 2.0 License.

Moderation’s Limits: Centrist Democrats Short-Term Triumph

March 7, 2020/in Demographics, Politics

Moderate Democrats are celebrating Joe Biden’s big Super Tuesday, but their joy may reflect a short-term triumph of the party’s past over its longer-term future. The sudden consolidation of the moderate vote around Biden may have triumphed for now, with help from African-American and older voters, but the Sanders–Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party remains the choice of rising demographic groups of the future.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/biden-2020campaign.jpg 1067 1600 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-03-07 07:42:462020-03-06 14:44:08Moderation’s Limits: Centrist Democrats Short-Term Triumph
Bernie Sanders and the leftward turn of the Democrats

Democrats Risk Blowback with Leftward Turn

March 2, 2020/in California, Politics

With progressive Democrats in almost total control of California, and easily winning the money race, there’s no compelling reason to expect that they will face much opposition soon. Yet at a hearing I attended last month, I may have gotten a glimpse of potential blowback against the party’s ever accelerating leftward turn.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bernie_Sanders_campaigns-at_UNC-Chapel_Hill.jpg 1066 1599 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-03-02 07:36:572020-03-01 11:37:38Democrats Risk Blowback with Leftward Turn
Middle class protest economic challenges in Paris, France

The Two Middle Classes

February 29, 2020/in Politics, The Economy

Politicians across the Western world like to speak fondly of the “middle class” as if it is one large constituency with common interests and aspirations. But, as Karl Marx observed, the middle class has always been divided by sources of wealth and worldview. Today, it is split into two distinct, and often opposing, middle classes.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Paris_economic_protests.jpg 1066 1599 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-02-29 09:22:462020-02-27 09:39:13The Two Middle Classes
Is the West trending towards socialism?

The West Turns Red?

February 26, 2020/in Politics, The Economy

Will the West turn red? The new socialism represents, like Trumpian populism, a response to such phenomena as globalization, the rising power of finance and technological change.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/us-trending-toward-socialism.jpg 808 1200 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-02-26 07:40:282020-02-23 14:57:16The West Turns Red?
Photo credit: Rafał Konieczny, Sacramento Capitol building

Why Can’t California Create Viable National Leaders Anymore?

February 24, 2020/in California, Politics

California politicians like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan achieved national power, establishing the primary strands of conservative thought. Yet since Brown’s last attempt to win the White House a quarter-century ago, no presidential candidate from California has made a serious bid.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/sacramento_cap_2013.jpg 400 495 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-02-24 07:49:492020-02-23 14:42:35Why Can’t California Create Viable National Leaders Anymore?
Luxury high rise buildings are seen in lower ManhattanPhoto credit: Ted McGrath

The Luxury City is Going Bust

February 19, 2020/in Urban Affairs

In a year when two boosters of the “luxury city,” Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg, are vying to run the whole country, the very model that created their “success” is slowly unraveling. After roughly 20 years of big-city progress, measured by economic growth and demographic progress, the dense urban centers, including New York, are again teetering on the brink of decline.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/high-rise-apartments-lower-manhattan.jpg 498 800 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-02-19 07:09:592020-02-19 14:58:14The Luxury City is Going Bust
Voting in the US by Becky McCrayPhoto: Becky McCray

How Different Generations are Influencing Our Politics

February 17, 2020/in Demographics, Politics

Race, gender and class may be shaping our society, but increasingly generational change drives our politics. Yet the key issue here may not be culture but economics.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/voting-in-usa.jpg 538 800 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-02-17 07:25:442020-09-23 08:45:07How Different Generations are Influencing Our Politics
Shifts in Economic and Demographic Power Favoring Red States

Red v. Blue

February 10, 2020/in Demographics, Politics, The Economy

Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox – The political and cultural war between red and blue America may not be settled in our lifetimes, but it’s clear which side is gaining ground in economic and demographic terms. In everything from new jobs to fertility rates, population growth, and migration, red states increasingly hold the advantage.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/demographics-red-vs-blue.png 1614 2501 Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox2020-02-10 08:53:212020-02-10 09:27:14Red v. Blue
Iowan holds "Make Him Go Away for 2020" sign at state fair during Democratic presidential candidates visit.Phil Roeder

The Democratic Civil War

February 3, 2020/in Politics

The Democratic Party may be united in their righteous detestation of Donald Trump, but the spirit of comity ends with that; ultimately the Democrats’ civil war reflects conflicts between prime constituencies.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020_iowa.jpg 404 505 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-02-03 07:35:372020-02-02 13:42:57The Democratic Civil War
demographics of the "blue marble"

Demographic Undestiny

January 27, 2020/in Demographics, Politics, Religion

Demography becomes destiny, the old adage goes. But many of the most confidently promoted demographic predictions have turned out grossly exaggerated or even dead wrong. In many cases they tend to reflect more the aspirations of pundits and reporters than the actual on-the-ground realities.

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https://joelkotkin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/blue-marble.jpg 350 486 Joel Kotkin /wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jkotkin_logo.png Joel Kotkin2020-01-27 07:25:512020-01-26 13:26:22Demographic Undestiny
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