MAKING MOVE TO URBAN CORE IS URBAN MYTH

Empty nesters will tire of their big, empty ranch homes. They will move to urban centers and live happily ever after in their skyboxes, enjoying the view, free from the tyranny of big yards and automobiles.

The young professionals were to bring energy and buzz to downtown Orlando. But it was the baby boomers who were supposed to bring the fat portfolios, using them to buy the luxury condos, eat at the cafes, shop at the exclusive stores and by tickets for the new performing-arts center.

It was a theory pushed here and around the rest of the country.

But this push toward urbanization is becoming an urban myth.

And that’s a huge blow for Orlando, where the city and developers have invested hundreds of millions in an urban vision that never attracted a key constituency.

“Someone who grew up living in 2,500 square feet with a driveway leading up to the front door isn’t going to downsize to 850 square feet until he’s ready for assisted living,” says Joel Kotkin, a scholar on urban development who wrote The City: A Global History. “The new urbanists convinced the idiot development community there was going to be this massive move that never happened.”

And the idiot development community convinced idiot public officials looking to revive their downtowns. And together they convinced the idiot journalists looking to promote a green lifestyle free of McMansions, commutes and St. Augustine grass.

In the real world, it seems the baby boomers are staying put or getting as far from urban centers as possible. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released a report noting the boomer trend is country living. It actually projects a decrease in the urban population as empty nesters invade rural areas.

Orlando must depend on the downtown youth movement. But as Kotkin points out, this demographic doesn’t have “the scratch” to buy the condos and create the sophisticated environment envisioned by Orlando leaders.