Demographics & Economics: Is the Future Already in Place?

Joel Kotkin is a researcher of global, economic, political and social trends, and the author of a new book, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050. Kotkin sees good things ahead for America because of favorable demographics. As he writes in a January 23-24, 2010 “Culture” piece for the Wall Street Journal…

“As many other advanced countries become dominated by the elderly, the U.S. will have the benefit of a millennial baby boom as the “echo boomers” start having offspring in large numbers later this decade…

“Within the next four decades, most of the developed countries in both Europe and East Asia will become veritable old-age homes: A third or more of their populations will be over 65, compared with only a fifth of America… Like the rest of the developed world, the U.S. will certainly have to cope with an aging population and lower population growth, but in relative terms, the country will boast a youthful and dynamic economy.”

While illegal immigration remains a touchy political issue, Kotkin focuses on the positives of newcomers to America, saying “immigration represents a critical component of our next wave of dynamism…What drives immigrants is their optimism in America’s future.” Further, Kotkin believes the United States will continue to have an immigration advantage as “nations such as Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands have turned against immigration” and “our prime Asian rivals – China, Japan and Korea – remain even more culturally resistant to diversity.”